• Mon May 26: Spot ~$3,332.04 (−0.8% on day); June futures $3,331.90 (−1.0%). (U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day.)
• Tue May 27: Spot ~$3,302.10 (−1.2%); July futures $3,300.40 (−1.9%).
• Wed May 28: Spot ~$3,299.95 (~flat); Aug futures $3,294.90 (−0.2%).
• Thu May 29: Spot ~$3,318.69 (+0.9%); Dec futures $3,343.90 (+0.6%).
• Fri May 30: Spot ~$3,293.59 (−0.7%); Dec futures $3,315.40 (−0.9%).

Over the week, spot traded between ~$3,332 (Mon high) and ~$3,294 (Fri close), while futures ranged ~$3,344 (Thu high) to ~$3,295 (Wed low). Friday’s close: spot ~$3,294 and futures ~$3,315. Overall futures lost ~US$71 (−2.1%) on the week.

• Gold is consolidating near key moving averages. It has reclaimed the 21-day SMA around $3,292/oz, which now acts as support.
• Immediate support: $3,250–$3,280. Resistance: $3,330–$3,350 (then ~$3,400).
• 14-day RSI ≈ 52 (just above neutral), indicating no extreme overbought/oversold conditions.
• Recent candlestick patterns (doji formations) suggest market indecision after April’s rally.
• Technical indicators imply a near-term trading range with a slight bullish bias as long as $3,292 holds.

• Inflation & Fed: U.S. Core PCE rose 2.1% YoY (Apr, below forecast). Fed minutes flagged rising inflation and unemployment risks. Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari: rates should stay on hold until tariff-inflation effects clear. Mixed data leave markets divided—favorable backdrop for gold as an inflation hedge.
• Trade & Tariffs: U.S. postponed planned EU tariffs to July, easing safe-haven demand early in the week. A trade court blocked most Trump-era tariffs, but an appeals court reinstated them pending appeal—pushing gold higher on Thursday when the block was removed.
• Global Risks: Ongoing U.S.-China tensions and Middle East uncertainties underpin safe-haven flows into gold. A weaker U.S. dollar (down ~0.1% Monday) lifted gold, though the dollar firmed modestly (+0.1%) by Friday. European public-debt concerns (Moody’s downgrade) also support gold indirectly.

• India: Demand cooled as local prices hit highs. Dealers offered ~$31/oz discounts on domestic stock (down from $49), reflecting muted late-wedding-season buying. Local 10-gram price ~₹94,900 (~$3,600/oz) on Friday. High import taxes (3% GST) and seasonality kept retail demand subdued.
• China: Strong consumption & investment. Shanghai Gold Exchange withdrawals jumped 27% m/m in April (153 t). Hong Kong imports tripled m/m. Chinese gold ETFs saw record inflows (AUM +57% in April, holdings 203 t). Local premiums widened to $0–$15/oz. China drove ~65% of Asia’s $11 bn ETF inflows in April.
• Egypt: CBE cut rates twice (100 bps total) by late May, encouraging flows into non-bank assets like gold. Egypt’s foreign reserves rose via gold: holdings value jumped ~$3 bn in Jan–Apr (to $13.63 bn), underscoring gold’s reserve role.

• U.S. Dollar: DXY was choppy—spiked to ~100.5 on tariff news, closed slightly higher (+0.1%). Firmer dollar made gold costlier for foreign buyers, tempering gains.
• Asian Currencies: Indian rupee strengthened to ~85.35/USD, lowering local gold prices. Chinese yuan up ~1% YTD, so RMB-priced gold rose ~24% since Jan, making it more attractive to Chinese investors.
• U.S. Treasuries: 10-year yield near 4.5% late in the week. Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Next week’s Fed/inflation data will be key—softer inflation could allow yields to fall, supporting gold.

• JPMorgan: Forecast average ~$3,675/oz by end-2025 (up from $3,055), >$4,000 by mid-2026—driven by strong investor and central bank demand (~710 t net quarterly) and rising recession odds.
• Goldman Sachs: On Apr 14, raised end-2025 target from $3,300 to $3,700/oz—citing strong central bank demand and surging ETF inflows (~80 t/month vs. 70 t prior).
• Citi/UBS: Remain bullish. UBS’s Staunovo expects gold to retest ~$3,500 in coming months. TD Securities’s Melek: market is consolidating off recent highs; buying dips ahead of eventual Fed easing.
• World Gold Council: Q1 2025 investment flows hit 552 t (+170% YoY); gold-backed ETFs saw 226.5 t inflows in Q1 (vs. 18.7 t in Q4 2024). Despite 21% drop in central bank buying (244 t) and weak jewelry demand, record ETF flows and bar/coin demand kept prices at all-time highs. April ETF inflows ~$11 bn pushed global ETF AUM to $379 bn (Asia led with ~$7.3 bn).

• Central banks remain major gold buyers: Q1 2025 net purchases ~244 t (including Polish & Turkish central banks; CBE bought in Egypt as noted).
• Gold ETFs saw unprecedented inflows: global ETF assets now exceed $379 bn (5th straight month of inflows). In April alone, ETFs took in ~$11 bn net (Asia ~$7.3 bn; North America ~$4.5 bn). ETF holdings at highest since mid-2022.

Gold appears set to trade cautiously next week. U.S. data—especially Friday’s Core PCE release and personal income/consumption—and Fed comments will be main catalysts. If inflation surprises lower, gold could regain upward momentum; otherwise, consolidation may continue.

Technically, $3,292 (21-day SMA) is key support—breaking below could open $3,250 territory. A break above $3,330–$3,350 would signal new highs; slides below ~$3,280 could lead to deeper pullbacks. Most strategists expect a trading range around current levels until clearer signals emerge.

Overall medium-term bias remains bullish: Citi/UBS maintain that gold is in a long-term uptrend and will benefit when Fed cuts arrive. Next week’s market reaction will hinge on whether data/news tilt toward growth/inflation fears or policy tightening.