XAU/USD (GOLD) – Tokyo Session Playbook – Monday, March 3, 2025

Tokyo Session Playbook: Market Maker Strategy

Tokyo Session Playbook: Market Maker Strategy

📅 Session Context

  • Friday’s Closing Impact – End-of-week profit-taking & Smart Money positioning
  • Monday’s Open Setup – Liquidity resets & possible stop hunts
  • End of Month → New Month Flows – Portfolio rebalancing impact
  • Trump’s Tariff Policies & Global Risk Sentiment – Risk-on/risk-off flows into gold
  • Upcoming Key Economic Data – Asian market sentiment will react to global factors

Considerations for Tokyo Session

🔹 Fundamental Impact – Economic News & Trump Tariffs

  • Trump’s Tariff Policies → More global uncertainty = Bullish for Gold
  • Chinese Market Reaction → Strong demand from China usually supports Gold
  • US Dollar Strength → If USD weakens, Gold will push higher

🔹 VSA & Market Maker Logic

  • If VSA shows Weak Buying → Expect early liquidity sweep & reversal.
  • If VSA shows Strong Buying → Institutions are preparing for London breakout.
  • Market Makers will likely trap retail traders before big moves.

🔷 Key Technical Levels

LevelPrice
✅ POC (Point of Control)$2,857.44
✅ VAH (Value Area High)$2,868.00
✅ VAL (Value Area Low)$2,849.00
✅ VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)$2,853.14

🔷 How Tokyo Will Play the Game

Scenario 1: Bullish Play (Strong Gold Demand in Asia)

  • Trigger: Smart Money absorbs liquidity at $2,849-$2,853 and price holds above VWAP.
  • Institutional Confirmation: Positive Delta & Increasing Bid Volume
🔥 Execution Plan
BUY:$2,849 – $2,853
STOP LOSS:Below $2,832
Take Profit Levels: TP1: $2,868 (VAH)
TP2: $2,875 (Liquidity Pool)
TP3: $2,885 (Breakout Target)

Scenario 2: Bearish Play (Liquidity Grab Before Reversal)

  • Trigger: Price spikes to $2,868-$2,875 but rejects with weak buying pressure.
  • Institutional Confirmation: Negative Delta & Sell Imbalances Above VAH
🔥 Execution Plan
SELL:$2,868 – $2,875
STOP LOSS:Above $2,885
Take Profit Levels: TP1: $2,853 (VWAP)
TP2: $2,849 (VAL)
TP3: $2,832 (Deep Reversal Zone)
Confidence Level: 90%

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