EGX30 DAILY CHART 25 01 2025 MCKVAY April 19, 2025

EGX30 Daily Chart – Comprehensive Technical Diagnosis

Date of Analysis

January 25, 2025

Confidence Level

8.5/10 – Backed by multiple technical signals (market structure, momentum indicator, and volume analysis). However, external factors (e.g., economic policies, global market trends) can still influence outcomes.

Market Structure

EGX30 has been trading within a descending channel (white lines) stretching from the 32,100 high to the 28,350 low. Despite this broader downtrend, price action has shown short-term recovery off the local low (28,350), suggesting a potential turn in sentiment if certain conditions are met.

Price Action & Volume

Higher Low Formation: The index established a higher low at 28,350, shifting momentum slightly bullish on lower timeframes.
Break of Structure (BOS): A bullish BOS was spotted around 29,600, indicating a possible near-term move upwards.
30,000–30,400 Resistance: Price is currently at a critical juncture; a successful close above 30,400 would likely fuel a further rally toward the upper channel.
Volume Trends (~72M daily): Above-average volumes support the recovery attempt, showing increased buying interest at current levels.

Moving Averages

50-Day SMA (~29,700): Price is slightly above this short-term average, reinforcing the emerging bullish tone.
100-Day SMA (~30,100): Currently aligns near the mid-range of the channel, acting as an interim ceiling. A decisive break above this SMA would strengthen the bullish bias.
Crossover Potential: If the 50-Day SMA crosses above the 100-Day SMA, it may signal a more sustained upward move.

Volatility & ATR

The 14-day Average True Range (ATR) is approximately 500–550 points, indicating moderate volatility within the channel. Spikes in ATR can occur if major support (29,600) or resistance (30,400) is breached, leading to sharper price moves.

Wider Support & Resistance

Immediate Support:	~29,600 (BOS retest area)
Secondary Support:	~29,200 (recent consolidation zone)
Key Resistance:	~30,000 – 30,400 (crucial breakout region)
Upper Channel Resistance:	~31,900 – 32,100 (major trend boundary)

Momentum Oscillator

The Mckvay Overload (proprietary oscillator) is recovering from oversold levels (~30-32). A mild bullish divergence was spotted, reinforcing the short-term uptrend. However, a move above the 40–50 range would be ideal to confirm a lasting bullish momentum shift.

Fundamental Factors

Local Economic Data: Upcoming inflation reports and any changes in government fiscal policy could significantly impact investor sentiment.
Monetary Policy Decisions: Potential rate hikes or cuts by the central bank may alter capital flows, thus affecting EGX30 valuations.
Global Risk Appetite: External market conditions (e.g., US/EU growth trends, commodity prices) also shape local equities.

Strategy Outlook

Short-Term (1–2 Weeks): Mildly bullish if the index holds above 29,600 and clears the critical 30,400 barrier. Upside targets lie near the 31,000–31,900 zone.

Medium-Term (1–3 Months): A breakout above the upper channel (~32,100) would invalidate the dominant downtrend, possibly leading to a sustained rally. Failure to breach 30,400 may result in a pullback toward 29,200 or even re-test 28,350.

Risk Management: Consider placing stop-loss orders below 29,600 (or 29,200 for wider risk tolerance). Monitor macro developments closely to gauge potential volatility spikes.

Summary & Disclosure

EGX30 is attempting to break out of its short-term downtrend structure, assisted by rising volume, higher lows, and a partially recovering momentum oscillator. Though the 30,000–30,400 region stands as a significant gateway, a decisive close above it would signify strong bullish follow-through. Yet, broader macro variables remain essential drivers of overall market direction.

Disclosure: This analysis is intended for informational use only and does not constitute financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence or consult a certified financial professional before making investment decisions.

References

Source Links:
– EGX30 on TradingView
– EGX30 Overview on Investing.com
– EGX30 at MarketWatch

Additional Reading:
– Central Bank of Egypt Policies

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Sources

Bloomberg Terminal
Reuters
Investopedia
Mckvay
MarketWatch
DailyForex
MacroTrends
Trading Economics
Acuity Knowledge Partners
Longforecast.com
Cboe Global Markets
TradingView
Central Bank Websites
World Gold Council
Refinitiv Eikon

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