TMG Holding (EGX: TMGH) – FINANCIAL & Technical OUTLOOK, Forecast & Future Scenarios, AND Major Trend Analysis.

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TMGH ON MULTI-TIME-FRAME CHART BY MCKVAY
TMG Holding (EGX) Technical & Strategic Forecast

TMG Holding (EGX) Technical & Strategic Forecast

Date: April 26, 2025

📑 Table of Contents

Introduction

TMG Holding (EGX: TMGH) is currently at a critical juncture, demonstrating early signs of a bullish market shift after a sustained correction phase. Based exclusively on the technical data provided, multiple indicators are aligning to support a potential reversal in the medium term, positioning the stock for a potential upside trajectory.

Major Trend Analysis

  • Primary Trend: Recent price action shows signs of exhausting the prevailing bearish momentum.
  • Trend Shift: The break in the local downward channel coupled with bullish candle patterns indicates the beginning of a primary trend reversal.
  • Momentum Support: The recovery from key liquidity levels and the bullish divergence across multiple indicators (notably RSI) solidifies the potential for an emerging uptrend.

The trend shift is supported by volume expansion and a break of previous minor swing highs.

Elliott Wave Breakdown

  • Wave Structure: The chart identifies a completed corrective Wave (3), followed by an impulsive beginning of a potential Wave (1) upwards.
  • Micro Counts: Subwave structures (1)-(5) have completed inside a corrective structure, suggesting the end of a cycle.
  • Expectation: A new bullish impulsive wave is anticipated, targeting higher Fibonacci retracements.

The structure confirms that the market has potentially finished a C-wave or a corrective 5-wave decline, setting up for a larger degree bullish wave.

Fibonacci Levels & Key Zones

  • Immediate Fib Levels: 51.93 EGP acts as the first retracement target.
  • Major Target Zones:
    • 57.6 EGP: First major resistance aligned with Fib extension.
    • 62.26 EGP: Higher timeframe resistance.
  • Zone Significance: These levels align with prior structure highs and liquidity zones, reinforcing their importance.

A bullish move toward 51.93 is the immediate target, followed by 57.6 EGP if momentum holds.

Liquidity Maps (Buy-side/Sell-side)

  • Buy-side Liquidity: A large cluster just above 51.93 — a magnet for price attraction.
  • Sell-side Liquidity: Cleared during the latest downward move around 46.00–47.00 EGP zones.

Liquidity hunting suggests more upside pressure towards 51.93 and beyond.

Volume Profile Analysis

  • Volume Expansion: Recent bullish candles are supported by increased volume — a strong sign of true movement.
  • Volume Gaps: Minor gaps between 49.50 and 51.00 EGP suggest fast movement potential.

Break above 50.00 could lead to an accelerated rally toward 51.93.

RSI, ADX, MACD Overview

  • RSI: Bullish divergence formed and confirmed; RSI turning upward across major timeframes.
  • ADX: Flattened during the correction, now showing the beginning of a trend strength increase.
  • MACD: Bullish cross forming with rising histogram momentum.

All three momentum indicators are aligning for a sustainable bullish shift.

Volatility & ATR Zones

  • ATR: Volatility contracted significantly but is starting to expand — typical of a beginning trend move.
  • Volatility Squeeze: A release upwards is likely based on the ATR expansion and price action breakout.

Volatility favors an upward directional breakout.

Key Support and Resistance Levels

  • Support Levels:
    • 48.00–48.50 EGP: Immediate support (holding above signals strength).
    • 46.00 EGP: Strong backup support (last defense of bullish bias).
  • Resistance Levels:
    • 51.93 EGP: First major challenge.
    • 57.60–62.26 EGP: Macro resistance zones.

As long as the 48.00 zone holds, bullish targets remain active.

Forecast & Future Scenarios

  • 🟢 Primary Bullish Scenario (Preferred)
    • Movement Expectation: Price continues higher to test 51.93 EGP.
    • Confirmation: A daily close above 51.93 would unlock 57.6–62.26 EGP targets.
    • Indicators: RSI and MACD support this bullish continuation.
  • 🟠 Secondary Neutral Scenario
    • Movement Expectation: Range-bound consolidation between 48.00 and 51.93 EGP.

Final Summary & Strategic Notes

The outlook for TMG Holding suggests strong bullish potential, supported by key technical indicators and liquidity. Any confirmation above 51.93 EGP can be considered a valid entry point for a longer-term move. Risk management is key, especially around key support zones like 48.00 EGP. Watch for volume confirmation and ADX strength to confirm further price action.

TMG Financial Analysis

Fiscal Quarters
QuarterPeriod EndingReport DateRestatement Type
1Q FY2022Mar-31-2022May-25-2022Restated
2Q FY2022Jun-30-2022Aug-21-2022Restated
3Q FY2022Sep-30-2022Nov-21-2022Reclassified
4Q FY2022Dec-31-2022Feb-21-2023Restated
1Q FY2023Mar-31-2023Jun-27-2023Restated
2Q FY2023Jun-30-2023Aug-13-2023Restated
3Q FY2023Sep-30-2023Nov-15-2023Restated
4Q FY2023Dec-31-2023Mar-01-2024Reclassified
1Q FY2024Mar-31-2024May-27-2024Restated
2Q FY2024Jun-30-2024Aug-27-2024Restated
3Q FY2024Sep-30-2024Nov-24-2024Original
4Q FY2024Dec-31-2024Feb-24-2025Original
Current/LTMApr-26-2025Apr-26-2025Current/LTM
Key Financials
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24Current/LTM
Total Revenues3,024.3 M4,069.1 M6,822.0 M5,955.0 M4,437.5 M6,269.6 M7,707.4 M10,016.9 M6,792.1 M10,232.6 M10,933.3 M14,712.2 M42,670.3 M
YoY Growth %14.48%42.77%17.19%47.58%46.72%54.08%12.98%68.21%53.06%63.21%41.85%46.87%50.08%
Gross Profit1,086.8 M1,245.0 M2,010.1 M1,896.7 M1,562.0 M1,830.7 M2,204.8 M3,039.8 M3,337.5 M3,238.7 M3,801.0 M4,923.0 M15,300.2 M
Gross Profit Margin35.94%30.60%29.46%31.85%35.20%29.20%28.61%30.35%49.14%31.65%34.77%33.46%35.86%
EBITDA787.3 M1,038.0 M1,702.9 M1,462.9 M1,171.6 M1,522.3 M1,899.4 M2,834.3 M2,597.8 M2,939.0 M3,365.1 M3,949.0 M12,850.9 M
EBITDA Margin26.03%25.51%24.96%24.57%26.40%24.28%24.64%28.30%38.25%28.72%30.78%26.84%30.12%
Net Income565.7 M546.6 M887.4 M304.8 M747.5 M812.7 M1,123.8 M629.3 M2,390.1 M1,499.0 M2,459.9 M4,374.1 M10,723.1 M
Net Income Margin18.70%13.43%13.01%5.12%16.84%12.96%14.58%6.28%35.19%14.65%22.50%29.73%25.13%
Diluted EPS0.220.220.430.150.380.300.500.280.990.661.031.944.68
YoY Growth % (EPS)0.31%8.42%7.00%–73.89%36.14%16.27%91.04%162.96%118.98%106.00%597.45%220.83%
Price / Earnings (P/E)10.0 x10.0 x10.5 x9.8 x7.8 x7.7 x18.5 x45.9 x28.6 x23.8 x19.1 x11.0 x10.7 x
Capital Structure
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24Current/LTM
Market Capitalization15,786.3 M16,199.0 M17,602.2 M20,429.3 M18,572.1 M19,624.5 M50,577.9 M138,052.3 M120,491.4 M118,654.8 M118,790.3 M105,860.7 M103,157.5 M
Cash & Equivalents5,845.4 M7,804.9 M6,989.4 M7,752.9 M9,362.4 M12,225.5 M13,713.1 M14,574.9 M18,777.6 M30,846.7 M38,528.1 M55,895.6 M55,895.6 M
Total Debt32,215.0 M29,418.6 M28,301.0 M29,938.5 M23,203.2 M10,913.4 M10,997.6 M20,127.4 M5,896.5 M6,917.1 M8,154.4 M30,250.4 M30,250.4 M
Minority Interest1,097.7 M1,083.5 M1,075.1 M1,034.9 M987.6 M1,029.3 M1,096.3 M667.0 M56,346.5 M58,328.2 M57,896.0 M60,726.0 M60,726.0 M
Enterprise Value (EV)43,253.5 M38,896.1 M39,989.0 M43,626.7 M33,400.4 M34,452.8 M48,958.7 M135,991.6 M118,430.6 M153,053.5 M146,312.6 M140,941.6 M138,238.3 M
Cash Flow Analysis
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24Current/LTM
Cash from Operations452.6 M3,625.9 M–393.3 M1,806.2 M195.7 M3,439.3 M2,275.8 M2,317.2 M654.1 M19,699.2 M–3,320.1 M–11,674.7 M5,358.4 M
YoY Growth %–43.97%153.05%–8,490.86%–56.75%–5.15%–28.29%234.15%472.77%–––34.88%
Capital Expenditure–1,005.2 M–394.2 M–460.4 M–1,329.6 M–1,325.1 M–636.0 M–504.4 M–725.0 M–58,500.5 M–9,379.0 M8,444.9 M–13,143.0 M–72,577.6 M
YoY Growth %115.44%–16.75%–49.88%11.25%31.82%61.32%9.56%–45.47%4,314.80%1,374.75%–1,712.90%2,174.82%
Revenues
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24LTM
Total Revenues3,024.3 M4,069.1 M6,822.0 M5,955.0 M4,437.5 M6,269.6 M7,707.4 M10,016.9 M6,792.1 M10,232.6 M10,933.3 M14,712.2 M42,670.3 M
YoY Growth %14.48%42.77%17.19%47.58%46.72%54.08%12.98%68.21%53.06%63.21%41.85%46.87%50.08%
Gross Profit
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24LTM
Cost of Revenues1,937.5 M2,824.0 M4,811.9 M4,058.3 M2,875.4 M4,439.0 M5,502.6 M6,977.1 M3,454.6 M6,993.9 M7,132.3 M9,789.3 M27,370.1 M
Gross Profit1,086.8 M1,245.0 M2,010.1 M1,896.7 M1,562.0 M1,830.7 M2,204.8 M3,039.8 M3,337.5 M3,238.7 M3,801.0 M4,923.0 M15,300.2 M
YoY Growth %15.38%37.30%6.68%50.45%43.73%47.04%9.69%60.27%113.66%76.91%72.40%61.95%77.14%
Operating Income & Expenses
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24LTM
Selling, G&A Expenses299.5 M207.0 M178.2 M388.2 M330.4 M218.3 M205.4 M1,069.3 M438.0 M361.7 M421.0 M2,079.5 M3,300.3 M
Depreciation & Amortization82.2 M81.4 M84.7 M95.5 M110.9 M128.4 M124.1 M128.4 M201.0 M178.8 M307.7 M378.9 M1,066.4 M
Other Operating Expenses––129.1 M43.6 M60.0 M90.0 M100.0 M–866.7 M286.0 M–2.4 M–1,112.9 M–824.5 M
Operating Income705.1 M956.6 M1,618.2 M1,369.4 M1,060.7 M1,393.9 M1,775.3 M2,708.8 M2,412.6 M2,698.2 M3,069.9 M3,577.5 M11,758.1 M
Net Interest & Non-Operating
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24LTM
Interest Expense110.7 M147.4 M267.3 M291.7 M204.0 M308.9 M383.3 M443.4 M210.5 M194.9 M460.1 M408.7 M1,274.2 M
Interest & Investment Income195.0 M31.7 M–112.4 M287.3 M238.3 M–145.5 M760.9 M555.4 M–478.1 M1,794.4 M
Other Non-Operating Income (Exp.)156.1 M128.1 M98.0 M190.3 M265.7 M77.3 M179.0 M429.8 M307.7 M588.5 M824.6 M882.8 M954.4 M
EBT & Net Income
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24LTM
EBT Excl. Unusual Items782.1 M730.8 M1,280.0 M1,180.8 M1,045.6 M1,170.5 M1,552.6 M1,862.0 M3,828.8 M2,626.4 M3,527.6 M3,115.5 M13,098.3 M
Gain/Loss on Sale of Assets1.3 M0.1 M0.2 M2.5 M0.3 M1.6 M2.4 M2.0 M–0.5 M3.7 M–1.9 M2.7 M4.0 M
EBT incl. Unusual Items783.4 M730.9 M1,280.2 M578.4 M1,045.9 M1,172.1 M1,555.0 M1,249.4 M5,169.2 M2,630.1 M3,525.7 M6,863.2 M18,188.2 M
Income Tax Expense229.4 M198.5 M401.1 M313.8 M345.7 M313.4 M420.5 M595.5 M1,033.2 M400.5 M829.2 M1,457.8 M3,720.7 M
Net Income565.7 M546.6 M887.4 M304.8 M747.5 M812.7 M1,123.8 M629.3 M2,390.1 M1,499.0 M2,459.9 M4,374.1 M10,723.1 M
Per Share & Supplemental
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24LTM
Net EPS – Diluted0.220.220.430.150.380.300.500.280.990.661.031.944.68
Normalized Diluted EPS0.240.230.390.380.440.290.430.550.320.520.820.442.15
Dividend Per Share–––0.19–––0.22–––––
Payout Ratio7.67%38.92%21.73%9.13%9.29%28.07%18.16%–0.82%33.87%15.43%9.72%12.42%
Assets
Metric1Q FY20222Q FY20223Q FY20224Q FY20221Q FY20232Q FY20233Q FY20234Q FY20231Q FY20242Q FY20243Q FY20244Q FY2024Current/LTM
Total Cash & Short-Term Investments5,845.4 M7,804.9 M6,989.4 M7,752.9 M9,362.4 M12,225.5 M13,713.1 M14,574.9 M18,777.6 M30,846.7 M38,528.1 M55,895.6 M
Cash & Equivalents4,304.9 M6,341.2 M5,185.0 M5,829.8 M5,952.4 M8,444.8 M9,548.2 M8,094.3 M5,532.5 M16,577.1 M24,997.5 M44,915.5 M
Short-Term Investments1,414.4 M1,340.9 M1,683.3 M1,680.1 M3,103.5 M3,473.0 M3,860.7 M6,171.0 M12,781.5 M13,796.0 M12,860.9 M10,462.6 M
Trading Asset Securities126.1 M122.8 M121.0 M243.0 M306.5 M307.6 M304.2 M309.6 M463.7 M473.6 M669.6 M517.4 M
Total Receivables36,653.2 M32,373.6 M31,120.8 M39,171.6 M44,269.2 M46,146.0 M50,312.4 M50,830.3 M56,591.7 M54,081.8 M44,657.0 M52,862.6 M
Accounts Receivable31,683.8 M29,591.2 M27,488.3 M34,490.1 M39,668.4 M39,349.8 M40,593.9 M39,127.7 M39,207.7 M34,230.0 M31,370.2 M29,871.2 M
Other Receivables686.4 M685.9 M810.8 M1,051.4 M1,062.1 M1,622.3 M1,921.3 M3,037.0 M3,162.9 M6,233.3 M–7,151.0 M
Inventory65,529.6 M70,624.4 M73,263.1 M74,717.5 M79,251.6 M84,594.7 M87,480.0 M91,011.8 M96,310.8 M100,219.2 M106,494.0 M107,595.6 M
Restricted Cash––––––––––––
Prepaid Expenses288.3 M217.5 M320.4 M145.7 M198.6 M667.5 M169.5 M201.4 M529.8 M766.8 M21,870.2 M2,274.4 M
Other Current Assets4,188.8 M4,278.8 M4,483.8 M5,444.8 M6,499.1 M5,942.7 M7,975.4 M7,165.1 M16,068.3 M13,177.1 M3,957.6 M15,090.2 M
Total Current Assets112,505.4 M115,299.3 M116,177.5 M127,232.5 M139,580.9 M149,576.4 M159,650.4 M163,783.6 M188,278.2 M199,091.6 M215,506.8 M233,718.3 M
Net Property, Plant & Equipment14,945.9 M15,260.8 M15,668.7 M16,877.1 M18,089.5 M18,607.2 M19,007.2 M19,701.0 M78,011.5 M80,010.3 M78,357.6 M87,175.5 M
Gross Property, Plant & Equipment17,085.6 M17,476.0 M17,959.0 M19,237.0 M20,526.0 M21,140.2 M21,629.5 M22,416.9 M80,940.8 M83,158.2 M81,833.3 M91,053.5 M
Accumulated Depreciation–2,139.7 M–2,215.2 M–2,290.3 M–2,359.8 M–2,436.5 M–2,533.0 M–2,622.3 M–2,715.8 M–2,929.3 M–3,147.9 M–3,475.7 M–3,878.1 M
Long-Term Investments4,894.0 M4,928.5 M4,934.3 M4,928.6 M5,036.1 M4,833.1 M4,804.2 M4,930.4 M10,627.0 M12,297.7 M8,814.8 M6,814.6 M
Goodwill12,066.1 M12,066.1 M12,066.1 M11,461.1 M11,461.1 M11,461.1 M11,461.1 M10,846.5 M10,846.5 M10,846.5 M10,846.5 M10,289.4 M
Other Intangibles3.8 M3.7 M3.5 M3.3 M3.4 M4.0 M3.5 M10.5 M4,067.3 M4,081.4 M4,078.0 M4,100.4 M
Loans Receivable Long-Term––––––––––––
Deferred Tax Assets (LT)46.0 M46.0 M46.0 M75.8 M234.9 M232.1 M230.4 M258.6 M166.6 M228.5 M407.6 M194.2 M
Deferred Charges Long-Term––––––––––––
Other Long-Term Assets1,052.2 M1,009.1 M965.9 M2,798.8 M2,728.0 M2,662.2 M2,566.7 M2,503.9 M5,513.4 M5,475.3 M5,437.1 M14,489.0 M
Total Assets145,513.5 M148,613.4 M149,862.0 M163,377.1 M177,134.0 M187,376.2 M197,723.5 M202,034.5 M297,510.5 M312,031.3 M323,448.4 M356,781.3 M
Net Income & Depreciation & Amortization
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24LTM
Depreciation & Amortization, Total82.2 M81.4 M84.7 M93.5 M110.9 M128.4 M124.1 M125.6 M185.6 M241.3 M295.6 M387.9 M1,110.4 M
Depreciation & Amortization82.2 M81.4 M84.7 M93.5 M110.9 M128.4 M124.1 M125.6 M185.6 M241.3 M295.6 M387.9 M1,110.4 M
Amortization of Goodwill & Intangibles–––––––––––––
Net Income565.7 M546.6 M887.4 M304.8 M747.5 M812.7 M1,123.8 M629.3 M2,390.1 M1,499.0 M2,459.9 M4,374.1 M10,723.1 M
Cash from Operations
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24LTM
Net Income565.7 M546.6 M887.4 M304.8 M747.5 M812.7 M1,123.8 M629.3 M2,390.1 M1,499.0 M2,459.9 M4,374.1 M
(Gain) Loss From Sale of Asset–1.3 M–0.1 M–0.2 M–2.5 M–0.3 M–1.6 M–2.4 M–2.0 M–0.5 M–2.8 M1.9 M–2.7 M–4.0 M
Amortization of Deferred Charges–––2.0 M–––2.8 M1.0 M1.1 M2.9 M3.9 M8.9 M
Asset Writedown & Restructuring–––605.0 M–––614.6 M–––4,367.0 M–4,367.0 M–
Other Operating Activities–114.7 M–409.1 M124.2 M–141.2 M–85.1 M–406.2 M295.9 M539.2 M–4,318.6 M4,478.5 M936.9 M5,458.6 M6,555.5 M
Change in Accounts Receivable–902.8 M2,154.7 M–820.5 M–1,098.3 M–866.2 M–1,372.0 M–2,454.0 M–530.9 M–6,978.8 M–10.6 M1,273.5 M–2,175.8 M–7,891.8 M
Change in Inventories–5,565.3 M–5,142.7 M–2,642.0 M–3,335.3 M–4,504.8 M–5,316.3 M–2,848.7 M–3,494.5 M–5,304.7 M–3,893.6 M–6,269.7 M–3,921.2 M–19,389.2 M
Change in Accounts Payable842.1 M–402.6 M2,048.9 M5,934.0 M–875.0 M–3,523.1 M3,675.2 M–2,003.1 M1,836.0 M3,750.5 M2,722.0 M7,486.9 M15,795.4 M
Change in Unearned Revenues4,712.8 M6,756.6 M1,464.7 M3,516.2 M3,953.1 M6,643.1 M–1,433.4 M3,298.6 M6,294.4 M12,586.8 M4,161.2 M9,029.3 M32,071.7 M
Change in Other Net Operating Assets839.6 M40.6 M–1,545.2 M–3,921.7 M1,769.8 M6,469.1 M3,790.3 M3,123.8 M6,709.5 M1,104.4 M–8,704.0 M–28,235.6 M–29,125.6 M
Cash from Operations452.6 M3,625.9 M–393.3 M1,806.2 M195.7 M3,439.3 M2,275.8 M2,317.2 M654.1 M19,699.2 M–3,320.1 M–11,674.7 M5,358.4 M
Cash from Investing
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24LTM
Capital Expenditure–1,005.2 M–394.2 M–460.4 M–1,329.6 M–1,325.1 M–636.0 M–504.4 M–725.0 M–58,500.5 M–9,379.0 M8,444.9 M–13,143.0 M–72,577.6 M
Sale of PP&E1.5 M3.2 M–1.5 M8.0 M0.4 M1.9 M3.5 M3.9 M2.6 M3.9 M0.6 M5.3 M12.4 M
Investment in Market & Equity Securities837.1 M40.1 M–348.2 M41.1 M–1,530.9 M–166.6 M–353.7 M–2,376.0 M–6,489.3 M–8,215.0 M5,205.9 M4,628.1 M–4,870.3 M
Other Investing Activities109.7 M18.5 M29.2 M79.9 M117.7 M104.0 M237.6 M250.0 M305.4 M157.6 M615.1 M474.4 M1,552.5 M
Cash from Investing–56.9 M–332.5 M–781.0 M–1,200.6 M–2,737.8 M–696.7 M–617.0 M–2,847.1 M–64,681.8 M–17,432.4 M14,266.5 M–8,035.2 M–75,883.0 M
Cash from Financing
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24LTM
Total Debt Issued487.9 M–487.9 M––2,465.2 M1,344.3 M106.3 M176.2 M–––36,208.2 M
Total Debt Repaid––616.4 M205.7 M–202.4 M––1,750.0 M––11.4 M–5,779.9 M1,464.5 M1,234.1 M–35.6 M
Common & Preferred Dividends Paid–43.4 M–212.7 M–192.8 M–27.8 M–69.4 M–228.1 M–204.1 M––19.5 M–507.8 M–379.6 M–425.3 M–1,332.2 M
Other Financing Activities–––––0.5 M60.7 M–977.4 M55,679.5 M1,981.7 M–432.2 M2,830.0 M60,059.0 M
Cash from Financing444.6 M–1,317.1 M12.9 M–230.2 M2,395.8 M–633.3 M–37.1 M–812.6 M49,880.1 M2,786.2 M422.3 M41,658.5 M94,747.2 M
Net Change in Cash
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24LTM
FX Rate Adjustments174.6 M16.5 M7.2 M266.6 M264.1 M–67.8 M–25.0 M–109.2 M2,197.0 M–854.3 M–1,348.6 M–4,178.8 M–4,184.7 M
Misc. Cash Flow Adjustments–––––––9,976.9 M6,841.3 M–1,598.5 M1,564.1 M16,783.9 M–
Net Change in Cash1,014.8 M1,992.9 M–1,154.2 M642.1 M117.8 M2,041.5 M1,596.7 M–1,451.7 M–1,973.7 M11,039.9 M8,421.5 M19,333.9 M36,821.7 M
Supplemental Items
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24LTM
Free Cash Flow–552.6 M3,231.7 M–853.8 M476.6 M–1,129.4 M2,803.3 M1,771.4 M1,592.2 M–57,846.4 M10,320.2 M5,124.8 M–24,817.7 M–67,219.2 M
Free Cash Flow per Share–0.271.57–0.410.23–0.551.360.860.77–28.035.892.48–12.03–32.57
Cash Income Tax Paid (Refund)45.8 M506.4 M335.8 M198.4 M128.9 M769.5 M17.8 M253.4 M122.9 M1,865.9 M––1,014.4 M
Change in Net Working Capital5,894.9 M–4,503.6 M349.8 M–1,599.7 M1,330.1 M–10,835.0 M2,789.3 M20,972.2 M160.8 M–10,466.6 M17,397.2 M868.6 M–13,206.2 M
Net Debt Issued / Repaid487.9 M–1,104.3 M205.7 M–202.4 M2,465.2 M–405.7 M106.3 M164.7 M–5,779.9 M1,464.5 M1,234.1 M39,253.9 M36,172.6 M
Sales | Revenues Multiples
Metric1Q FY20222Q FY20223Q FY20224Q FY20221Q FY20232Q FY20233Q FY20234Q FY20231Q FY20242Q FY20243Q FY20244Q FY2024Current/LTM
EV / Sales (LTM)2.7 x2.3 x2.2 x2.2 x1.6 x1.5 x2.0 x4.8 x3.8 x4.4 x3.9 x3.3 x3.2 x
EV / Sales (NTM)2.4 x2.1 x2.2 x2.1 x1.4 x1.5 x1.7 x3.9 x2.3 x3.3 x2.9 x2.7 x2.9 x
Price / Sales (LTM)1.0 x1.0 x1.0 x1.0 x0.9 x0.8 x2.1 x4.9 x3.9 x3.4 x3.1 x2.5 x2.4 x
Price / Sales (NTM)0.9 x0.9 x1.0 x1.0 x0.8 x0.8 x1.8 x3.9 x2.3 x2.6 x2.3 x2.0 x2.2 x
Earnings Multiples
EV / EBITDA (LTM)10.4 x8.8 x8.8 x8.7 x6.2 x5.9 x8.1 x18.3 x14.4 x15.9 x13.2 x10.8 x10.6 x
EV / EBITDA (NTM)8.1 x6.9 x7.2 x7.9 x6.1 x5.9 x4.8 x10.8 x7.5 x9.5 x7.9 x7.4 x–
EV / EBIT (LTM)11.2 x9.5 x9.5 x9.4 x6.7 x6.3 x8.7 x19.6 x15.4 x17.0 x14.2 x12.0 x11.8 x
EV / EBIT (NTM)8.8 x7.4 x8.8 x8.4 x6.5 x6.2 x5.0 x11.4 x7.8 x10.0 x8.2 x8.4 x9.3 x
Price / Earnings (LTM)10.0 x10.0 x10.5 x9.8 x7.8 x7.7 x18.5 x45.9 x28.6 x23.8 x19.1 x11.0 x10.7 x
Price / Earnings (NTM)7.8 x6.4 x6.8 x6.9 x7.3 x7.0 x12.3 x24.0 x14.9 x13.7 x11.4 x10.1 x7.5 x
Book Value Multiples
Price / Book (LTM)0.5 x0.5 x0.5 x0.6 x0.5 x0.5 x1.3 x3.6 x2.0 x1.7 x1.9 x1.5 x1.5 x
Price / Tangible Book Value (LTM)0.7 x0.7 x0.7 x0.8 x0.7 x0.8 x1.9 x5.0 x2.7 x2.2 x2.4 x1.9 x1.8 x
Capital Structure
Metric1Q FY20222Q FY20223Q FY20224Q FY20221Q FY20232Q FY20233Q FY20234Q FY20231Q FY20242Q FY20243Q FY20244Q FY2024Current/LTM
Market Capitalization15,786.3 M16,199.0 M17,602.2 M20,429.3 M18,572.1 M19,624.5 M50,577.9 M138,052.3 M120,491.4 M118,654.8 M118,790.3 M105,860.7 M103,157.5 M
Cash & Short-Term Investments5,845.4 M7,804.9 M6,989.4 M7,752.9 M9,362.4 M12,225.5 M13,713.1 M14,574.9 M18,777.6 M30,846.7 M38,528.1 M55,895.6 M55,895.6 M
Total Debt32,215.0 M29,418.6 M28,301.0 M29,938.5 M23,203.2 M10,913.4 M10,997.6 M20,127.4 M5,896.5 M6,917.1 M8,154.4 M30,250.4 M30,250.4 M
Preferred Equity–––––––––––––
Minority Interest1,097.7 M1,083.5 M1,075.1 M1,034.9 M987.6 M1,029.3 M1,096.3 M667.0 M56,346.5 M58,328.2 M57,896.0 M60,726.0 M60,726.0 M
Enterprise Value (EV)43,253.5 M38,896.1 M39,989.0 M43,626.7 M33,400.4 M34,452.8 M48,958.7 M135,991.6 M118,430.6 M153,053.5 M146,312.6 M140,941.6 M138,238.3 M
Enterprise Value Multiples
EV / Sales (LTM)2.7 x2.3 x2.2 x2.2 x1.6 x1.5 x2.0 x4.8 x3.8 x4.4 x3.9 x3.3 x3.2 x
EV / EBITDA (LTM)10.4 x8.8 x8.8 x8.7 x6.2 x5.9 x8.1 x18.3 x14.4 x15.9 x13.2 x10.8 x10.6 x
EV / EBIT (LTM)11.2 x9.5 x9.5 x9.4 x6.7 x6.3 x8.7 x19.6 x15.4 x17.0 x14.2 x12.0 x11.8 x
Capitalization Components
Total Capital67,431.3 M65,158.5 M64,917.3 M66,866.8 M60,489.2 M49,052.8 M50,319.7 M59,143.2 M122,323.9 M126,140.2 M130,161.6 M161,732.7 M161,732.7 M
Total Common Equity34,118.6 M34,656.4 M35,541.1 M35,893.4 M36,298.4 M37,110.2 M38,225.8 M38,348.8 M60,080.9 M60,894.9 M64,111.2 M70,756.3 M70,756.3 M
Total Preferred Equity–––––––––––––
Total Debt32,215.0 M29,418.6 M28,301.0 M29,938.5 M23,203.2 M10,913.4 M10,997.6 M20,127.4 M5,896.5 M6,917.1 M8,154.4 M30,250.4 M30,250.4 M
Minority Interest1,097.7 M1,083.5 M1,075.1 M1,034.9 M987.6 M1,029.3 M1,096.3 M667.0 M56,346.5 M58,328.2 M57,896.0 M60,726.0 M60,726.0 M
Leverage & Returns
Return on Total Capital2.75%3.61%6.22%5.20%4.16%6.36%8.93%12.37%6.99%5.43%5.99%6.13%6.65%
Total Debt / Total Capital47.8%45.1%43.6%44.8%38.4%22.2%21.9%34.0%4.8%5.5%6.3%18.7%18.7%
Total Debt / Equity91.5%82.3%77.3%81.1%62.2%28.6%28.0%51.6%5.1%5.8%6.7%23.0%23.0%
Total Debt / EBITDA10.2 x7.1 x4.2 x5.1 x5.0 x1.8 x1.4 x1.8 x0.6 x0.6 x0.6 x1.9 x2.4 x
Long-Term Debt / Total Capital33.5%33.2%30.6%23.2%15.0%19.3%18.7%16.3%3.1%3.4%4.2%4.3%4.3%
Returns
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24Current/LTM
Return on Assets1.24%1.63%2.71%2.19%1.56%1.91%2.30%3.39%2.41%2.21%2.42%2.63%2.63%
Return on Equity6.31%6.00%9.72%2.88%7.55%9.11%11.72%6.68%21.29%7.57%8.94%17.06%16.97%
Return on Total Capital2.75%3.61%6.22%5.20%4.16%6.36%8.93%12.37%6.99%5.43%5.99%6.13%6.65%
Return on Common Equity5.27%5.33%10.11%3.36%6.65%7.75%11.93%5.98%16.51%7.67%15.74%23.68%17.68%
Margins
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24Current/LTM
EBITDA Margin26.03%25.51%24.96%24.57%26.40%24.28%24.64%28.30%38.25%28.72%30.78%26.84%30.12%
EBITA Margin23.32%23.51%23.72%23.00%23.90%22.23%23.03%27.04%35.52%26.37%28.08%24.32%27.56%
EBIT Margin23.32%23.51%23.72%23.00%23.90%22.23%23.03%27.04%35.52%26.37%28.08%24.32%27.56%
EBT Margin–––––––––––––
EBT excl. Non-Recurring Items Margin–––––––––––––
Gross Profit Margin35.94%30.60%29.46%31.85%35.20%29.20%28.61%30.35%49.14%31.65%34.77%33.46%35.86%
SG&A Margin9.64%5.13%2.57%6.58%7.23%3.38%2.58%5.12%6.54%3.82%3.90%10.14%6.45%
Net Income Margin18.70%13.43%13.01%5.12%16.84%12.96%14.58%6.28%35.19%14.65%22.50%29.73%25.13%
Net Avail. for Common Margin14.83%11.25%13.01%5.03%13.52%11.35%14.58%5.72%29.91%11.33%22.50%27.13%22.60%
Normalized Net Income Margin16.55%11.57%11.85%13.07%15.79%10.93%12.45%11.37%9.53%8.90%18.00%6.22%10.41%
Asset Turnovers
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24Current/LTM
Receivables Turnover (Avg)0.4 x0.5 x1.0 x0.8 x0.5 x0.6 x0.8 x1.0 x0.7 x1.1 x1.3 x1.9 x1.2 x
Fixed Assets Turnover0.8 x1.1 x1.8 x1.5 x1.0 x1.4 x1.6 x2.1 x0.6 x0.5 x0.6 x0.7 x0.8 x
Inventory Turnover0.1 x0.2 x0.3 x0.2 x0.1 x0.2 x0.3 x0.3 x0.1 x0.3 x0.3 x0.4 x0.3 x
Asset Turnover0.1 x0.1 x0.2 x0.2 x0.1 x0.1 x0.2 x0.2 x0.1 x0.1 x0.1 x0.2 x0.2 x
Days Outstanding Inventory (Avg)–––––––––––––
Short-term Liquidity
Metric1Q222Q223Q224Q221Q232Q233Q234Q231Q242Q243Q244Q24Current/LTM
Current Ratio1.4 x1.4 x1.3 x1.2 x1.2 x1.3 x1.3 x1.4 x1.3 x1.3 x1.4 x1.4 x1.4 x
Quick Ratio0.5 x0.4 x0.4 x0.4 x0.4 x0.4 x0.4 x0.5 x0.4 x0.4 x0.5 x0.5 x0.5 x
Days Sales Outstanding––384.9478.8–573.5477.1366.1524.8326.5276.0191.5295.9
Days Payable Outstanding60.128.241.166.945.171.7151.889.8153.0148.5144.9130.355.0
Cash Conversion Cycle3,797.82,850.61,719.32,089.13,116.52,181.21,763.81,453.12,838.71,456.61,464.31,067.21,568.8
Operating Cash Flow to Current Liabilities0.0%0.2%–0.0%0.1%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.5%–0.1%–0.3%0.0%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) = NOPAT / Average Invested Capital
Metric1Q FY20222Q FY20223Q FY20224Q FY20221Q FY20232Q FY20233Q FY20234Q FY20231Q FY20242Q FY20243Q FY20244Q FY2024Current/LTM
Net Operating Profit After Tax (NOPAT)475.8 M758.1 M1,217.1 M1,055.6 M714.9 M1,080.6 M1,354.8 M2,113.3 M1,379.4 M2,297.6 M2,240.7 M2,119.7 M8,037.5 M
Invested Capital, Average–66,294.9 M65,037.9 M65,892.1 M63,678.0 M54,771.0 M49,686.3 M54,731.5 M90,733.5 M124,232.0 M128,150.9 M145,947.1 M161,732.7 M
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)–1.14%1.87%1.60%1.12%1.97%2.73%3.86%1.52%1.85%1.75%1.45%4.97%
Debt Analysis
Metric1Q FY20222Q FY20223Q FY20224Q FY20221Q FY20232Q FY20233Q FY20234Q FY20231Q FY20242Q FY20243Q FY20244Q FY2024Current/LTM
Total Debt / Equity91.5%82.3%77.3%81.1%62.2%28.6%28.0%51.6%5.1%5.8%6.7%23.0%23.0%
Total Debt / Capital47.8%45.1%43.6%44.8%38.4%22.2%21.9%34.0%4.8%5.5%6.3%18.7%18.7%
Long-Term Debt / Equity64.1%60.6%54.2%42.0%24.3%24.8%23.9%24.7%3.3%3.6%4.5%5.3%5.3%
Long-Term Debt / Capital33.5%33.2%30.6%23.2%15.0%19.3%18.7%16.3%3.1%3.4%4.2%4.3%4.3%
Total Liabilities / Total Assets75.8%76.0%75.6%77.4%79.0%79.6%80.1%80.7%60.9%61.8%62.3%63.1%63.1%
Interest Rate Coverage (EBIT / Interest Expense)6.4x6.5x6.1x4.7x5.2x4.5x4.6x6.1x11.5x13.8x6.7x8.8x9.2x
Debt Coverage (Total Debt / EBITDA)10.2x7.1x4.2x5.1x5.0x1.8x1.4x1.8x0.6x0.6x0.6x1.9x2.4x
Bankruptcy Risk (Altman Z-Score)0.630.660.780.630.560.620.690.940.870.951.041.020.94
Sources
  1. Bloomberg Terminal
  2. Reuters
  3. Investopedia
  4. Mckvay
  5. MarketWatch
  6. Trading Economics
  7. Acuity Knowledge Partners
  8. Koyfin
  9. Cboe Global Markets
  10. TradingView
  11. Central Bank Website
Disclaimer

The information, content, and recommendations provided on this platform are intended solely for educational and informational purposes. Under no circumstances should they be construed as personalized investment advice, nor do they constitute a solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments.

1. No Guarantee of Profit:

Trading in financial markets involves substantial risk, and there is no guarantee of profit or protection against losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and the potential for loss is real.

2. Independent Decision-Making:

All investment decisions are your sole responsibility. You are strongly encouraged to perform your own due diligence, research, and seek advice from a qualified financial professional before making any investment or trading decisions.

3. Market Risks:

Financial markets are inherently volatile and subject to numerous factors, including economic conditions, geopolitical events, and unforeseen circumstances. These factors may cause rapid and significant changes in market conditions that may impact your investments.

4. No Liability:

Mckvay Consulting and any associated parties shall not be held liable for any direct, indirect, or consequential damages resulting from reliance on the information provided. Any use of this platform is at your own risk.

5. Educational Purpose Only:

The content provided is designed to educate and inform about general market trends, analysis, and strategies. It is not intended to offer specific investment recommendations or actionable directives.

6. Accuracy of Information:

While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, we cannot guarantee the completeness, accuracy, or reliability of the data or recommendations. Numbers, statistics, and projections may contain errors or be outdated. Always verify data from multiple sources before making decisions.

7. Risk of Loss:

You acknowledge that trading in financial instruments carries a high level of risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. You should only invest money you can afford to lose.

8. Past Performance:

Historical data, performance charts, and any backtesting results provided are not predictive of future performance. Past results should not be used as an indication of future success.

9. No Endorsement:

The information provided does not imply endorsement or recommendation of any particular product, service, or financial instrument. Any action taken based on the provided content is solely at the discretion of the user.

10. Changes to Information:

The content, data, and recommendations on this platform may change without notice. We are not responsible for keeping the information current or for any losses arising from the use of outdated content.

11. External Links:

Any external websites or third-party links provided are not under the control of Mckvay Consulting. We are not responsible for the content, availability, or accuracy of such external sites.

12. No Warranty:

The platform, its content, and any services offered are provided “as is,” without any warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to the accuracy, completeness, or fitness for a particular purpose.

13. Consultation with Professionals:

It is essential to consult with qualified professionals, including but not limited to financial advisors, tax consultants, or attorneys, before making any investment decisions, particularly if you are unfamiliar with the risks of financial markets.

14. Simulated or Hypothetical Performance:

Simulated performance results or hypothetical returns may not reflect actual trading results and are often designed with the benefit of hindsight. These results may not account for the potential impact of financial market factors, such as transaction costs or liquidity constraints.

15. No Control Over Market Events:

Mckvay Consulting cannot control or predict unforeseen market events, and no one can predict market movements with certainty. Therefore, the possibility of significant losses due to unexpected market developments exists.

By using this platform, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agreed to the terms outlined in this disclaimer. You accept the inherent risks associated with trading and investing, and you agree to trade responsibly and within your financial capacity.

This disclaimer includes the professional tone and additional points to cover a wider range of legal and risk-related considerations, including the possibility of errors in data and the need for independent verification.

Disclaimer

The information, content, and recommendations provided on this platform are intended solely for educational and informational purposes. Under no circumstances should they be construed as personalized investment advice, nor do they constitute a solicitation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instruments.

1. No Guarantee of Profit:

Trading in financial markets involves substantial risk, and there is no guarantee of profit or protection against losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and the potential for loss is real.

2. Independent Decision-Making:

All investment decisions are your sole responsibility. You are strongly encouraged to perform your own due diligence, research, and seek advice from a qualified financial professional before making any investment or trading decisions.

3. Market Risks:

Financial markets are inherently volatile and subject to numerous factors, including economic conditions, geopolitical events, and unforeseen circumstances. These factors may cause rapid and significant changes in market conditions that may impact your investments.

4. No Liability:

Mckvay Consulting and any associated parties shall not be held liable for any direct, indirect, or consequential damages resulting from reliance on the information provided. Any use of this platform is at your own risk.

5. Educational Purpose Only:

The content provided is designed to educate and inform about general market trends, analysis, and strategies. It is not intended to offer specific investment recommendations or actionable directives.

6. Accuracy of Information:

While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information, we cannot guarantee the completeness, accuracy, or reliability of the data or recommendations. Numbers, statistics, and projections may contain errors or be outdated. Always verify data from multiple sources before making decisions.

7. Risk of Loss:

You acknowledge that trading in financial instruments carries a high level of risk and may result in the loss of your entire investment. You should only invest money you can afford to lose.

8. Past Performance:

Historical data, performance charts, and any backtesting results provided are not predictive of future performance. Past results should not be used as an indication of future success.

9. No Endorsement:

The information provided does not imply endorsement or recommendation of any particular product, service, or financial instrument. Any action taken based on the provided content is solely at the discretion of the user.

10. Changes to Information:

The content, data, and recommendations on this platform may change without notice. We are not responsible for keeping the information current or for any losses arising from the use of outdated content.

11. External Links:

Any external websites or third-party links provided are not under the control of Mckvay Consulting. We are not responsible for the content, availability, or accuracy of such external sites.

12. No Warranty:

The platform, its content, and any services offered are provided “as is,” without any warranties, express or implied, including but not limited to the accuracy, completeness, or fitness for a particular purpose.

13. Consultation with Professionals:

It is essential to consult with qualified professionals, including but not limited to financial advisors, tax consultants, or attorneys, before making any investment decisions, particularly if you are unfamiliar with the risks of financial markets.

14. Simulated or Hypothetical Performance:

Simulated performance results or hypothetical returns may not reflect actual trading results and are often designed with the benefit of hindsight. These results may not account for the potential impact of financial market factors, such as transaction costs or liquidity constraints.

15. No Control Over Market Events:

Mckvay Consulting cannot control or predict unforeseen market events, and no one can predict market movements with certainty. Therefore, the possibility of significant losses due to unexpected market developments exists.

By using this platform, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and agreed to the terms outlined in this disclaimer. You accept the inherent risks associated with trading and investing, and you agree to trade responsibly and within your financial capacity.

This disclaimer includes the professional tone and additional points to cover a wider range of legal and risk-related considerations, including the possibility of errors in data and the need for independent verification.

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