Gold Analysis: A Strategic Trading Approach
Gold remains a strong long-term investment, but success in trading requires in-depth knowledge and precise analysis. Below is a structured strategy based on technical and analytical insights to determine entry and exit points while managing risk effectively.
Key Principles
• Avoid impulsive trades: There’s no room for greed or random entries. Buying should be done at low levels while avoiding high-risk speculation. • Patience is key: Waiting for market consolidation before entering large trades is crucial for success. • Future targets: Projections indicate potential moves toward 3,100 and later 3,250, where significant volatility is expected.
The Importance of the 3,000 Level
The 3,000 level is a critical liquidity zone where institutional traders execute their strategies. Several key dynamics are observed at this level: Large order accumulation: Orders are stacking up between 2,985 and 3,000, suggesting institutional accumulation before the next major move. Suspicious price movements: The market appears to be setting up for either a strong breakout or a liquidity trap. Breakout signals: Indicators suggest a breakout is approaching, but a final trigger is still needed for confirmation. This level is expected to either break upwards or dip towards 2,970 before reversing higher.
Expected Scenarios for Monday
Scenario 1:	A Dip Below 2,985 Before Reversing Higher (75% Probability)
• The market dips to form a base around 2,970, attracting new buyers. • During the London session, major traders inject liquidity, pushing gold back above 3,000. • In the New York session, gold surges towards 3,020 and then 3,100. How to Trade It? • Enter a buy position between 2,970 – 2,985 upon a strong bullish reaction. • Targets: 3,020 → 3,100 • Stop-loss: Below 2,950 to avoid further declines.
Scenario 2:	A Direct Breakout Above 3,000 (50% Probability)
• The market holds above 2,990 without a major dip. • During the London session, volume spikes, leading to a clean breakout above 3,000. • In the New York session, gold surges to 3,050, then continues toward 3,100. How to Trade It? • Enter a buy position only after a confirmed breakout above 3,000 (with a 15-minute candle closing above it). • Targets: 3,050 → 3,100 • Stop-loss: Below 2,985 in case of a fake breakout.
Scenario 3:	A Fake Breakout Above 3,000, Then a Sharp Drop (Bear Trap – 30% Probability)
• The market breaks 3,000, luring in buyers, then reverses sharply, triggering stop-losses. • During the London session, gold fails to hold above 3,000 and drops below 2,985. • In the New York session, the decline accelerates toward 2,950 – 2,960. How to Trade It? • Enter a sell position below 2,985 after a strong rejection candle. • Targets: 2,960 → 2,950 • Stop-loss: Above 3,010 in case of another fake move.
Final Strategy – Execute It Right and Stay Ahead
• Best Entry: Wait for the market to dip to 2,970 – 2,985 before buying. • Biggest Risk: If price breaks 3,000 too quickly, it might be a bull trap. • Market Confidence: A 75% probability that gold will consume liquidity before making a strong move.
Final Thoughts
Monday is expected to start with a liquidity trap, where the market might show one direction and do the opposite. The key to success is patience and executing trades based on technical signals rather than emotions.

16 OF MAR 2025

Published By Dr. Mohamed Mahmoud

MCKVAY GOLD

Social

Instagram

Mckvay Consulting

Straight To The Top.