XAU/USD Multi-Timeframe Comprehensive Analysis with Key Success Factors (KSF)
Current Price (CP): $2639.14
EMA-8 (Green): $2636.85
EMA-21 (Red): $2636.32
SMA-50 (Black): $2637.47
Step 1: Technical Analysis with FVG and Price Detachment Integration
30-Minute Chart (Dominant Chart)
Detachment:
Price detached by $2-$3 from EMA-8 and EMA-21, indicating potential mean-reversion upward.
Ichimoku Cloud:
Price hovers just below the Cloud baseline, signaling indecision. Breakout potential lies above $2640.
Support Levels:
$2635 (EMA-21 confluence).
$2632 (Bullish FVG lower boundary).
Resistance Levels:
$2642 (Bearish FVG boundary).
$2647 (Fibonacci 61.8%).
Trend Assessment:
EMA-21 & SMA-50:
Price sits marginally above EMA-21 and slightly below SMA-50. Short-term bearish pullback remains intact.
Momentum Indicators:
RSI: Holding near 54, confirming moderate bullish momentum.
Stochastic RSI: Bullish crossover in oversold region (~22).
ADX: At 20.28, signaling consolidation and weak trend strength.
Higher Timeframes (1H, 4H, Daily)
Key Levels:
Support Levels:
$2635 (EMA-21 confluence).
$2632 (Bullish FVG lower boundary).
Resistance Levels:
$2642 (Bearish FVG boundary).
$2647 (Fibonacci 61.8%).
Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
Bullish FVG (Green): $2635-$2637 (untested support zone).
Bearish FVG (Red): $2642-$2644 (untested resistance zone).
Higher Timeframes (1H, 4H, Daily)
1H Chart:
EMA-21: Price hovering near $2636 (reversion zone).
Bearish FVG: $2645-$2648 aligns with Fibonacci 61.8%, acting as strong resistance.
4H Chart:
Bollinger Bands indicate price near the upper band ($2644), signaling overextension.
Support Zone: $2630-$2635 (Fibonacci 50% zone).
Daily Chart:
Long-term trend is bullish, but resistance at $2650-$2655 is critical.
Support lies at $2615 (EMA-21 alignment).
5M Chart:
Price rejection seen at $2640 (minor bearish divergence on RSI).
Stochastic RSI: Bullish crossover near $2637, signaling potential upward momentum.
15M Chart:
Bullish divergence forming at $2637.
Price action indicates potential reversal upward.
Step 2: Key Success Factors (KSF) Scenarios
Step 2: Key Success Factors (KSF) Scenarios
Bullish Rejection Scenarios:
Rejection candles with long lower wicks near $2635-$2637 on 5M/15M charts.
RSI > 50 required for confirmation on 30M.
Stochastic RSI crossover near oversold regions aligns with Bullish FVG.
Bearish Rejection Scenarios:
2-3 bearish candles near $2642 on 15M charts (rejections with long upper wicks).
RSI failing to breach 50 on 30M.
Step 3: Signature Multi-Timeframe Entry Plans with FVG and Detachment Confluence
Step 3: Signature Multi-Timeframe Entry Plans with FVG and Detachment Confluence
Long Entry Plan:
Entry 1: Aggressive Scalping Long
Trigger: Price holds above $2635 support for 2 consecutive 5M candles.
Entry: $2636.
Stop Loss: $2633 (below FVG low).
Targets:
TP1: $2640 (VWAP upper band).
TP2: $2644 (Bearish FVG resistance).
Expected Candlestick Pattern: Bullish engulfing or morning star near $2635-$2637.
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:3.
Entry 2: Confirmation Long
Trigger: Price holds above $2640 with RSI > 50.
Entry: $2641.
Stop Loss: $2638.
Targets:
TP1: $2645 (Bearish FVG).
TP2: $2650 (Fibonacci 61.8%).
Expected Candlestick Pattern: Breakout bar with volume spike.
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:4.
Short Entry Plan:
Entry 1:
Aggressive Scalping Short
Trigger: Rejection at $2644 with 2 consecutive bearish candles on 5M.
Entry: $2644.
Stop Loss: $2647 (above resistance).
Targets:
TP1: $2640.
TP2: $2637 (Bullish FVG).
Expected Candlestick Pattern: Shooting star near $2644.
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2.
Step 4: Volume Profile and Momentum Analysis
30-Minute Volume Analysis:
Increased positive volume at $2637 confirms buyer activity.
Decreased volume near $2642 reflects seller control.
Lower Timeframes (5M/15M):
Volume Profile: Volume spikes near $2635-$2637 indicate support.
Momentum Divergence: RSI on 5M shows weakening bearish pressure.
Step 5: Final Trading Outlook
Key Notes:
Breach below $2633 invalidates bullish setups.
Monitor RSI, volume spikes, and Stochastic RSI crossovers before entries.
Maintain strict stop-loss placement with 1:3 risk-reward for high-probability trades.