XAU/USD Multi-Timeframe Comprehensive Analysis & Trading Plan
This comprehensive breakdown integrates calibrated trade setups, multi-timeframe confluence, and breakout/breakdown scenarios.
1. Short-Term View (5M/15M)
1) Moving Averages (EMA-8, EMA-21, SMA-50):
Price consistently trades below EMA-8 and EMA-21, showing strong bearish momentum.
SMA-50 acts as dynamic resistance near $2,642.00.
3) Momentum Indicators:
RSI: At 49, below neutral, confirming weak upward momentum.
Stochastic RSI: Approaching oversold levels, watch for a bounce at $2,630.
2) Price Action Analysis:
Bearish candlestick formations like Shooting Star confirm rejection zones at resistance.
Overextensions below EMA-8 suggest bearish mean-reversion opportunities.
4)Key Levels:
Resistance: $2,642.00 (EMA-21/SMA-50).
Support: $2,630.00 (Psychological and prior low).
2. Mid-Term View (30M/1H)
Trend Assessment:
Clear lower highs and lower lows on both 30M and 1H charts.
Price trades firmly below EMA-21 and SMA-50, confirming mid-term bearish trend continuation.
Fair Value Gaps (FVG):
Bearish FVG zone between $2,645.00–$2,650.00 has been rejected.
Tested support near $2,633.00 aligns with Fibonacci 23.6%.
Momentum Analysis:
ADX: Rising above 25, showing increasing trend strength favoring bears.
RSI: Hovering around 42 on 1H, reflecting persistent weakness.
3. Long-Term View (4H)
Detachment Analysis:
Price remains detached below EMA-21 and rejected at SMA-50.
Downward continuation likely towards support at $2,617.00.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $2,650.00 (SMA-50, Fib 50%).
Support: $2,630.00 and $2,617.00.
Volume Analysis:
Sustained negative volume spikes confirm bearish dominance.
4. Swing Trading View (Daily)
Trend Structure:
Price has decisively broken below EMA-8 and EMA-21.
SMA-50 at $2,660.00 rejected the upward move, triggering bearish swing continuation.
Momentum Indicators:
RSI: At 49, momentum remains bearish.
ADX: Confirming trend direction and strength.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $2,660.00 (SMA-50).
Support: $2,617.00 (swing low).
5. Trade Scenarios & Triggers
Timeframe Trade Setup Entry Price Stop Loss Take Profit 1 Take Profit 2 Trigger Condition
5M/15M Short Rejection $2,642.00 $2,644.00 $2,635.00 $2,630.00 Bearish rejection near EMA-21 and SMA-50.
30M/1H Breakout Short $2,640.00 $2,646.00 $2,633.00 $2,627.00 Price closes below EMA-8 with volume increase.
4H Short Continuation $2,642.00 $2,650.00 $2,630.00 $2,617.00 EMA-21 and SMA-50 align, confirming weakness.
Daily Swing Short $2,642.00 $2,660.00 $2,617.00 $2,600.00 Rejection from SMA-50 and bearish close.
6. Volume & Momentum Analysis Across Timeframes
Indicator 5M/15M 30M/1H 4H/Daily
RSI Bearish < 50 Weak momentum (42–45) Bearish below 50
Stochastic RSI Near oversold Oversold approaching Weak bullish attempts
ADX Weak trend (5M/15M) Rising trend strength Strong trend above 25
Volume Bearish spikes Bearish dominance Negative volume flow
7. Key Success Factors (KSF)
Trade Alignment: Entries align with bearish trends on all timeframes.
Volume Confirmation: Rising negative volume spikes confirm sell setups.
Invalidation Level: Breach above $2,646.00 cancels short-term setups.
Liquidity Sweeps: Watch for liquidity sweeps near $2,630.00 for added confirmation.
Executive Summary
Short-Term View (5M/15M):
Price action trades below EMA-8 and EMA-21, with the SMA-50 capping as resistance. Bearish divergence in momentum (RSI < 50) aligns with rejection candles. Short setups dominate with targets at $2,630.00.
Mid-Term View (30M/1H):
Bearish structure persists. Breakdowns below EMA-21 align with bearish Fair Value Gaps (FVGs). Support lies at $2,633.00 (Fibonacci 23.6%), with SMA-50 resistance at $2,645.00.
Long-Term View (4H):
Lower highs and lows confirm bearish dominance. EMA-21 and SMA-50 align as strong resistance near $2,650.00, with a downside target at $2,617.00.
Swing Trading View (Daily):
Price has rejected SMA-50 ($2,660.00) and trades firmly below EMA-8 and EMA-21. Key target: $2,617.00.
Hypothetical Trade Setup (Best Opportunity):
Order Type: Sell Stop
Entry: $2,640.00
Stop Loss: $2,646.00
Take Profit 1: $2,630.00
Take Profit 2: $2,617.00
Confidence: 80%
Sell Stop Order: Entry at $2,640.00, Stop Loss at $2,646.00, and Take Profit at $2,630.00.
Final Notes:
XAU/USD presents strong bearish opportunities across all timeframes. Key areas to watch are the $2,642 resistance and $2,630–$2,617 support range.